10 June 2015
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015
Source – World Coal Association
BP has published the 2015 edition of its flagship publication, the Statistical Review of World Energy, which presents energy production and consumption data for 2014.
Key factors driving global energy markets in 2014:
- The continuing shale revolution in the US – In 2014, capital spending in the shale industry reached around $120 billion and production rose by 1.6 Mb/d.
- Developments in China – The slowing Chinese economy has been accompanied by a continuing shift in the pattern of growth to less energy intensive sectors. BP notes, however, that the decline is unlikely to be sustained in the longer term.
- Climate and environment issues – In the lead-up to COP21, countries have begun to map their course with several regulatory announcements, including from China and the US.
Global energy demand: Weak growth in energy demand and softening in energy prices
The report finds that growth in primary energy consumption slowed to 0.9% in 2014. Aside from the brief decline during the Global Financial Crisis, this is slowest growth in energy demand since the late 1990’s. As in previous editions, the report notes growth was concentrated in emerging economies, with energy consumption in developed economies continuing to fall. The paper attributes low demand growth to the re-balancing of China’s economy and one-off weather related impacts, particularly in the European Union.
Coal: 2014 saw modest growth with India overtaking China as a demand supply force
In 2014, global coal consumption grew by 0.4%, with production declining by 0.7%. Slow growth was particularly pronounced in China, consumption grew by just 0.1% compared to an average 6% over the last decade. Chinese production levels also fell, declining by 49 Mtoe (-2.6%). The report links the relative decline of coal in China to structural changes to the economy and power sector.
India was a major consumption (+ 11.6%, 36 Mtoe) and production (+ 6.4%, 15 Mtoe) driver in 2014. Much of India’s increased demand for coal came from the power sector and allowed the country to have its strongest rate of increased power generation since 1989. BP notes scope for further growth given the country’s large population without adequate access to electricity. Africa also increased consumption of coal in 2014 by 2%. Elsewhere, Indonesia (+ 2%) and Australia (+ 4.7%) experienced modest output growth.
Fossil Fuel Reserves:
BP reports the following reserves to production ratios for fossil fuels:
- Oil – 52 years
- Natural Gas – 54 years
- Coal – 110 years